Developing countries play an increasingly important role in international climate negotiations. We assess determinants and implications of negotiation positions of various country groups. This research is closely related to our projects "Negotiating Climate Change" and "Institutional design and 'constructed peer groups' in international organizations: The case of the international climate change regime" for which we have provided separate, detailed research descriptions. Mitigation of greenhouse gases and adaptation to climate change have become key drivers of international public finance flows, including development assistance. We discuss whether and to what extent such assistance can effectively contribute to reaching the Millennium Development Goals, how funds for adaptation and mitigation can be allocated efficiently, whether reporting of public climate flows is accurate or driven by political interests, and how private sector investments can be mobilized. Developing countries have been playing a key role in the international greenhouse gas market, as projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) were developed in surprisingly high numbers until late 2012. We assess the various aspects of the CDM such its political economy, costs of generation of CDM credits, as well as CDM reform options such as discounting of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) for advanced developing countries, standardizing baselines, strengthening of the additionality test and improvements of the rules for programmatic CDM. On the basis of the CDM’s shortcomings, and of the mounting pressure on rapidly developing countries to accept emission reduction commitments in the period after 2012, we analyze how problematic the transition from being a host of CDM projects to engaging in sectoral mechanisms or, eventually, own emission reduction targets will be, and what measures could be taken to reduce these potential problems. Given the political interest in the design of sectoral or policy-based crediting, we analyze their advantages and disadvantages regarding incentive structures, data collection needs, and the mobilization of emission reduction potential. In cooperation with Mark-Daniel Jäger (Chair Prof. Andreas Wenger / ETH Zurich) we also investigate how the issues of climate change and development play a role in the energy governance between industrialized and developing countries. As part of the research programme “Challenges of European External Energy Governance with Emerging Powers”, led by Prof. Michèle Knodt at TU Darmstadt (see http://www.politikwissenschaft.tu-darmstadt.de/index.php?id=3129), we examine the energy dialogues between the European Union and China, India, Brazil and South Africa, including the role of non-state actors, their interests and incentives. We also assess determinants of technology transfer for renewable energy technologies in India and China. National and international climate policy increasingly interact with each other. We contribute as a third party to the EU FP7 project "Mobilizing and transferring knowledge on post-2012 climate policy implications" (see http://www.polimp.eu), which aims at identifying what future international climate policy directions may look like and what these imply for policy and decision makers internationally and within the EU. The overarching motivation of POLIMP is to facilitate exchange and transfer of information about climate policy and its implications among the policymakers, market actors and general society within the EU. We participate in INOGOV, an EU COST network of excellence dedicated to understanding the sources, patterns and effects of policy and governance innovations for climate change. In this framework we focus on the diffusion of renewable energy support policies in developing and emerging countries, and the role that international climate policy plays in this context. Project team: Chandreyee Bagchi, Paula Castro, Daisuke Hayashi, Axel and Katharina Michaelowa For project coordinators / project leadership and contact addresses see below.
Despite growing recognition that education has to be effectively interlinked with labor market development and that is not in itself a magic bullet for economic development, it remains a major determinant of the latter. Moreover, basic education is widely considered as a human right and figures predominantly among the internationally agreed Millennium Development Goals. However, tight budget constraints still render the delivery of even a few years of education to all children difficult in many sub-Saharan African countries, and even more so if the additional requirement of decent education quality is also taken into account. In this project, we examine the existing constraints to access and quality of education, and evaluate policy developments, such as the engagement of “contract teachers” with respect to these objectives. The links between education and labor market outcomes, specifically occupational choice are analyzed in the context of remittances. The latter being a means to alleviate credit constraints for business creation and a means to substitute labor for leisure, this research examines if and in what way human capital can be a moderator for individual labor market decisions. In a second part, the importance of remittances for education spending and educational attainment will be studied. In another study (jointly with colleagues from Manchester and Delhi), we analyze agricultural labor choices in Malawi. The paper investigates under which conditions people accept labor at other people's farms and potentially neglect their own fields s a consequence. For most of the overall project, the analysis is based on data from large-scale student- and household-surveys such as provided by the “Programme d’analyse des systèmes éducatifs de la CONFEMEN” (PASEC) (see http://www.confemen.org) or the World Bank Living Standard Measurement Study (LSMS) (see http://www.worldbank.org/lsms) or the Migration and Remittances Household Survey 2009 (see http://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/534) for Senegal. Moreover, we examine the interests of different political actors influencing educational policy making in Sub-Sahara Africa drawing from the literature of the political economy of reform. This will enable us to derive practical policy recommendations based not only on efficiency considerations, but also on the chances of implementation in a given political and institutional context.
Aid effectiveness has been intensively (and inconclusively) debated ever since the first strong criticism was published in the mid-1980s. Reducing the level of complexity by focusing on the sector level rather than on general economic development, we attempt to add some new insights to this debate. Moreover, we consider that just like decision making in any other field, decision making on development cooperation is not free from vested interest of the different actors involved. We apply the analytical tools of public choice analysis to create some transparency about how exactly these decision making processes work. Providing insight into the different channels of influence and deriving institutional conditions conducive to effective aid may help to allocate aid more efficiently in the future. This research is also related to the analysis of the political economy of international organizations, a topic we started a conference series on (with Axel Dreher, ETH Zurich). For these conferences, see http://www.cis.ethz.ch/events/pastevents/PEIO; http://www9.georgetown.edu/faculty/jrv24/PEIO.html (Our research in this field partially overlaps with research in the framework of our project on --> aid and democratization). Finally, we examine existing evaluation systems within the aid administration in donor countries, with a particular focus on different German aid agencies. Specific institutional characteristics, e.g. the independence of evaluation units, the selection process of evaluators, and the follow-up on evaluation outcomes, are important determinants of the reliability of evaluation results. Looking at different aid agencies, both the effectiveness and the cost of evaluation systems can be compared, and lessons can be drawn to improve overall efficiency. (This part of our research has now been completed, see publications below.)
This project examines the influence of the International Financial Institutions (IFIs) on democratization in developing countries. The project focuses on two interrelated topics: (1) the instruments that the IMF and the World Bank can use to effectively encourage democratization in developing countries, and (2) the institutional context that shapes the interactions between domestic and international actors in the area of democratization. More specifically, the project compares the new Poverty Reduction Strategies (PRS) with previous instruments of IFIs’ intervention. The aim is to define procedural and contextual factors that explain whether, and under which conditions, the IFIs’ influence in general, and the PRS process in particular, can be expected to encourage democratization in developing countries. The main focus will be on African and Asian countries during the third wave of democratization from 1974 to 2007. Theoretically, a political economy perspective is adopted here. According to this logic, the policies of the IFIs can have a positive or negative impact on democratization depending on the incentives thereby created for the involved political actors. On this theoretical basis, an empirical analysis based on a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods is proposed. As a result, it should become clear whether, and under which conditions, PRSP processes outperform previous instruments of multilateral cooperation in terms of promoting democratization in developing countries. (For related research, see also --> "Aid effectiveness / Political economy of aid".)