The main goal of this project is to gather data that helps us understand the political effects of cash transfers. For this purpose, we designed a survey to be administered in the Brazilian municipality of Maricà. We target Maricà specifically to evaluate a unique policy, the Renda Bàsica de Cidadania (RBC). The RBC is a monthly cash transfer of approx. R$170 (US$31) per person. All households with an income below 3 times the minimum wage (3 × R$ 1100) are eligible. We are specifically interested in how the program changed the citizen-government relationship. On the one hand cash transfers which reduce vulnerability are expected to decrease clientelism on the other hand other corrupt activities may replace clientelism when people have more cash on hand. Importantly, perceptions on corruption in general relate to political participation and public support for democracy, which is historically low in Brazil, especially among the poor and vulnerable. Yet, successful programmatic social policies can raise participation and democratic support. Political effects of cash transfers are generally difficult to estimate, since most transfer programs are transitory not permanent like the RBC. We leverage the the eligibility threshold of the RBC, a quasi-exogenous cut-off, which allows us to apply causal inference methods. Since the RBC is financed through oil royalties our research will be informative for the prominent “resource-curse” literature. In this respect we will be able to provide tangible policy conclusions on whether the RBC is feasible model for spending resource revenues.
India is home to some of the most glaring forms of social, economic and political inequalities. Despite the constitutional commitment to address these inequalities, the inadequate provision of public services in terms of quality, efficiency and scale has led to a lack of even the most basic level of livelihood support, social security and opportunity for large parts of the population. In Delhi, the relatively novel Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has made public service provision a political priority. This has not only contributed to its electoral success in India’s capital in three consecutive elections, but its “Delhi governance model” is now also a selling point in other states. The wide, cross-class support for the AAP and its public service reforms in Delhi is somewhat puzzling: To date, research on Indian middle classes suggests that firstly, from a self-interested point of view, these groups are often sceptical with regard to the often-low-quality services provided by the public sector and tend to rather “exit” to private provision than use their “voice” to improve public services. Secondly, allyship with lower classes to combat inequality by vying for more redistribution and better public services via a political party has so far been rather unknown in the political arenas of the Indian north. In this project, I explore 1) under which circumstances the middle classes in India support reforms to increase the quality of public service provision, 2) how the distributional effects of increased quality public services materialise across social classes and 3) how this affects the social and political attitudes and behaviours of urban middle-class Indians. To examine these issues in more detail, I will use a mixed-methods approach based on both ethnographic and survey data collection, as well as qualitative and quantitative analysis.
Digital technology promises to expand political participation, increase the efficiency of public administration, and make participation in public debates accessible to all. But this enthusiasm goes hand in hand with concerns that digital tools are being misused to manipulate public opinion, influence elections, and surveil people. Certain aspects of digital technology are problematic, but opinions differ as to what exactly the problems are, and what exactly the state should do. Fabrizio Gilardi and his team are developing new theories and methods relying on large amounts of data to identify the development and effects of different discourses regarding the digitalization of democracy. The findings will help us to understand how our societies deal with the consequences of digital technology in the political sphere.
Jointly with Profs. David Dorn (director), Nir Jaimovich and Matthias Mahlmann, I co-direct the UZH Research Priority Program “Equality of Opportunities”. The URPP Equality of Opportunity aims to investigate the economic and societal changes that give rise to inequality. The researchers involved in the program will also analyze legal frameworks and political measures that help to increase equal opportunities for all members of a society. At IPZ, we conduct a sub-project that studies the politicization of economic inequalities and their political implications via survey experiments and focus groups. The project team consists of Tarik Abou-Chadi, Stefanie Walter, Tabea Palmtag, Delia Zollinger and myself. Also at IPZ, we support a range of excellent projects on political science inequality research through the IPZ Inequality Research Fund.
Does terrorism affect citizens' preference for democracy? I study the effect of terrorist attacks on preference for democracy in an event-study-like setting, by comparing reported preference for democracy shortly before and after terrorist attacks in several African countries. Alleviating the general concern that experiencing terrorism compromises preference for democracy, I document an average increase in preference for democracy. About 8% of those not preferring democracy are persuaded in favor of democracy. I find that the effect is particularly pronounced among individuals who evaluate their state as undemocratic. For individuals perceiving their state as democratic I find no adverse reaction to democracy. The empirical results are robust to a number of tests, including a correction for spatial confounding, which is a so far unaddressed issue in similar empirical setups. Preference change can be seen as a mechanism in the economic theory of political transition.
DISINTEGRATION is a research project run by Stefanie Walter (University of Zurich) and funded by an ERC Consolidator Grant. It examines the mass politics of disintegration and pays particular attention how other voters, elites and governments in other countries respond to voter-endorsed challenges to international institutions. PUBLIC OPINION (WP 1): When and how does one country’s mass-based disintegration experience encourage or deter demands for disintegration in other countries? DOMESTIC DISCOURSE (WP 2): How are the contagion effects of mass-based disintegration transmitted through domestic elites and domestic discourse? DISINTEGRATION NEGOTIATIONS (WP 3): How do an international institution’s other member states respond to one member state’s mass-based disintegration bid? THEORIZING DISINTEGRATION (WP 4): Building a theory of mass-based disintegration. DISINTEGRATION is a research project funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program grant agreement No 817582 (ERC Consolidator Grant DISINTEGRATION, 2019-2024) and the University of Zurich.
In the case of heterogeneous and politically divided societies, the literature on democratic consolidation often recommends relying on rules and practices that disperse political power (e.g. Lijphart, 1991; Linder, 1994; Schneider, 2008). However, the relationship between democratic consolidation and power dispersion is complex, because actors critical of democratization may use democratic rules and processes to halt democratic consolidation. Other scholars have therefore recommended the concentration of power to create stable governments and exclude non-democratic groups from power.We examine the complex relationship between democratic consolidation, power dispersion, and the use of (non-)democratic rules and processes to further or stop this consolidation process in Switzerland from 1848 onward. After the short civil war of 1847 and subsequent creation of the federal state in 1848, Switzerland's young democracy was confronted with several societal groups skeptical of the federal state and democracy. We examine how the societal groups controlling political power in the early decades used non-democratic means to limit the power of societal groups critical of democratization. At the same time, we explore how these societal groups critical of democracy used instruments provided by the democratic political system in order to limit democratic consolidation or the development of state capacity. Ultimately, we ask whether and how (non-)democratic rules and processes were used to further or stop the democratic consolidation in Switzerland.We focus on three distinct aspects of democratic consolidation and power dispersion at cantonal and national level: suffrage restrictions to exclude certain societal groups, the adaptation of electoral district boundaries for political reasons (redistricting), and direct democratic rules and practices. While restrictions on suffrage and the use of redistricting to achieve partisan advantages (often called 'gerrymandering') are prominent examples of electoral malpractice (Schedler, 2002; Birch, 2011), the role of direct democracy is rather specific to Switzerland, but certainly no less relevant. For each aspect, we ask how these rules and practices were used to further or halt democratic consolidation, how the rules were adapted to improve democratic processes, and what kind of effects these democratization reforms had on political outcomes.Methodologically, we lay particular emphasis on the micro-foundations of historical processes. Following recent developments in democratization research (most notably Ziblatt, 2009), we look at subnational variation, both at cantonal and district level, as well as direct democratic procedures and roll-call votes in parliament. Typically based on archival research, these new methodological approaches to democratization research combine the comparative strengths of historical research regarding primary sources and context-sensitivity with the powerful methodological tool-kit of the social sciences. It is not least with regard to these methodological approaches that Switzerland offers excellent conditions for research on democratic consolidation, as historical documents are often available, direct democratic procedures and cantonal variation allow for subnational analysis, and roll-call votes in parliament were quite common.The findings of our research will contribute to a better understanding of how young democracies consolidate and institutional choices are shaped by political and social conflicts. In addition, we examine the strategies used by young democracies to deal with societal groups critical of democracy, which is of particular importance given the current rise of anti-system parties. As a secondary contribution of this research project, we aim to make the collected data publicly available to further research on democratic consolidation and political reform in Switzerland.